On innovation

There are in essence two types of innovation: First, you can incrementally improve something that is are already being done; Second, you may combine two different ideas into something radically better. The first method is surest and safest. In corporate life it typically requires the ability and desire of people on the workfloor to change their methodologies. The correct incentive and hierarchical structure is key here. The second is what every C level manager hopes for, the next big thing. It requires resources devoted to exploration, and an incentive structure that rewards asymmetric risk taking. It should reward behaviour where a large chance of a limited failure is offset by a small chance for a large payoff. This is contrary how most companies operate, although pharmaceuticals and venture capitalists are notable exceptions to that rule. This can make it difficult to make truly large strides In many organisations individuals feel obligated to follow the cultural norms of the organisation. Remember what Machiavelli wrote on innovation:

And let it be noted that there is no more delicate matter to take in hand, nor more dangerous to conduct, nor more doubtful in its success, than to set up as a leader in the introduction of changes. For he who innovates will have for his enemies all those who are well off under the existing order of things, and only the lukewarm supporters in those who might be better off under the new. This lukewarm temper arises partly from the fear of adversaries who have the laws on their side and partly from the incredulity of mankind, who will never admit the merit of anything new, until they have seen it proved by the event.

This is the

Datascience is a tricky business that cannot be reliably automated yet. Given a large enough pool to draw data from, one may find any number of spurious correlations. The most infamous example may be the connection that was found between the number of people who drowned in a pool, and the number of movies that Nicolas Cage appeared in. A human understands that this is simply a coincidence, a machine does not. At least not yet. One needs a theory, an intuïtion, a model of the world in order to judge These relationships may be a complete coïncidence,

Bag of Nails, his fur frost-tipped, feels the time for his final feat.

So our swift seeker silently striding stalks through the shadows, Klauth-slaying he seeks.

Stench in his nostrils, roars in the distance, the monster he knows he will face now at last.

Flames burn the forest, steadfast the hero, woe to the wyrm, as weapon is strung.

Fly forth foe finder, fleet arrow of Gnari, this I command you and let loose the string.

A Lightning bolt leaping, so flies the arrow, shatters on shield like scales of the beast.

Undaunted the hero, turning the ship now, the prow to the belly of old-scarred Klauth.

Fear grips the foebeast and craven turns Klauth now, fleeing from fearless and furious foe.

Since the industrial revolution humanity has largely decoupled from physical restrict ions. Our reality is a social one, and we act in accordance with our perceptions of that reality. Some time ago an elderly family member announced a desire to move to more modest accommodations. Two things - the new location, the old location. The old location - keep in the family, sell. Value - market value, theory of value. Market value - challenges. Theory of value - discussion on risk, reward. This started a proces, the lessons of which I Given her advanced age this was not wholly unexpected. Most family members however had expected her to remain living where she did

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